What can recent history tell us for the 2015 Warrnambool May Carnival

warrnambool-may-carnivalWith the 2015 Warrnambool May Carnival right on our doorstep it’s the opportune time to dissect last year’s event to find the movers and shakers who are most likely to be back again to do more of the same.

Naturally, trainer Darren Weir is the first one we should be keeping an eye on in the quest to find a winner over the three-day race fest at the ‘Bool’.

The master trainer won seven of the 29 races on offer at the 2014 Warrnambool May Carnival, an increase of three on his four wins the previous year, at just under a 25% strike rate.

Of Weir’s seven winners, Brad Rawiller rode 3, Michelle Payne 2, with Dean Yendall & John Allen snaring one each.

Other trainers to fare well last year include Bill Wilde, Ciaron Maher, Eric Musgrove & Patrick Payne, who all scored doubles.

It’s worth noting Ciaron Maher & Bill Wilde scored a treble & double respectively the previous year at Warrnambool and have winning form at the ‘Bool’ in recent years.

As far as jockey/trainer combinations go, the Darren Weir/Brad Rawiller combo is certainly one to watch next week, especially when in the betting market, as they combined three times last year at odds of $3.00, $4.00 and $4.40 to get the chocolates.

Rawiller also had three seconds at $6.50, $2.00 & $16.00 and two thirds at $15.00 and $4.80, making him a good jockey to follow over the carnival, especially on an each-way basis.

He also managed four winners the previous year, for a total of seven winners over the past two Warrnambool May Carnivals, and that makes him a hoop to follow at the ‘Bool’.

Of the jockeys, Brad Rawiller, Dean Yendall, Jamie Mott and Michelle Payne each had three wins, just over 40% of all races, with doubles to Mark Zahra, Steven Arnold & Steven Pateman.

Dean Yendall rode his three winners for Darren Weir ($4.40), Matthew Williams ($2.30) and Pat Hyland ($8.50), Jamie Mott for Colin Chandler ($5.00), George Osborne ($6.50) and Wez Hunter ($11.00), and Michelle Payne for Darren Weir ($5.50 & $11.00) and Ciaron Maher ($3.00).

These three jockeys are certainly worth watching when on horses around the $5.00 to $11.00 mark, and when on fancied runners from the bigger stables.

Dean Yendall finished second at odds of $21 & $41 last year and is well worth an investment on a big priced runner, as his ability to get a horse home at huge odds is second to none.

Interestingly enough, 24 of the 29 winners last year were between the odds of $2.00 and $10.00, and there were only four winners above the $10 mark.

2014 Warrnambool May Carnival Winning Odds

ODDS WINS %
< $2.00 1 3%
$2.01- $5.00 11 38%
$5.01 – $9.99 13 45%
$10 to $11 4 14%
> $11 0 0%

Of the 11 winners under $5.00, Brad Rawiller & Dean Yendall rode five between them, just under half, with four of those for the Darren Weir stable.

Keep an eye out for Brad Rawiller or Dean Yendall riding a Darren Weir horse under $5.00 in the betting, as if history repeats, they get the job done more than half the time.

Backing jockeys such as Brad Rawiller, Dean Yendall, Jamie Mott, Michelle Payne, Mark Zahra, Steven Arnold & Steven Pateman at around the $5 to $10 mark is worth considering too.

With no winners above $11.00 last year, perhaps a long shot or two may salute this year, and may be worth an investment each way with jockeys such as Dean Yendall aboard.

2014 Warrnambool May Carnival Barriers

Barriers 1-9 won 86% of the 29 races last year and gates 1-5 won 14 (48%), so horses drawn 10 or more face a tough task if last year is anything to go by, although Akzar won the Cup from gate 16, but he was a dominant winner.

BARRIER WINS %
1 3 10%
2 1 3%
3 2 7%
4 2 7%
5 6 21%
6 2 7%
7 3 10%
8 3 10%
9 3 10%
10 1 3%
12 1 3%
14 1 3%
16 1 3%

On the above figures, if your fancy is well drawn then it has a much better chance of winning.

2014 Warrnambool May Carnival Stats

All but three of the 29 races were won by horses carrying 57kg or more, and the most successful weight was 60kgs with 5 winners, then 58kg (4) & 57kg (4).

Horses carrying between 57kg & 60kg won 19 of the 29 races (65%).

Horses drawn well, carrying 57kg to 60kg, at under $10, with jockeys such as Brad Rawiller, Dean Yendall, Michelle Payne, Steven Arnold, Jamie Mott and Mark Zahra aboard, are worth keeping an eye on.

The average odds of the 29 winners last year was $6.12, barriers 6, and weight 60.3kgs.

WINNER BARRIER WEIGHT ODDS
Take Out 3 70.0 $11.00
Palmero 1 69.0 $1.80
Gotta Take Care 7 69.0 $2.40
Elms 2 68.0 $6.00
He’S Hot To Trot 5 68.0 $6.50
Tenby Lady 8 66.0 $2.70
Chaparro 5 64.0 $8.00
Akavoroun 8 60.0 $3.00
Written Up 9 60.0 $6.50
Mossale 9 60.0 $7.00
About The Journey 10 60.0 $6.00
Mr Barnbougle 14 60.0 $9.00
The Four Lads 8 59.5 $5.00
Reigning Meteor 5 59.0 $2.30
Glaneuse 6 59.0 $8.00
Top Brass 5 58.5 $11.00
On The Gas 7 58.5 $10.00
Mio Dio 1 58.0 $11.00
Live For Today 3 58.0 $4.00
Bitter Dan 5 58.0 $4.40
Milford Road 12 58.0 $6.50
No Song No Supper 6 57.5 $4.20
Mossbeat 4 57.0 $2.90
Lunar Nova 4 57.0 $8.00
Shiny Buttons 7 57.0 $4.40
Akzar 16 57.0 $3.00
Stratumsphere 9 56.0 $5.50
Kneeling 1 54.0 $9.00
Queen Of Eight 5 54.0 $8.50
6.4 60.3 $6.12

Stands to reason if you back a horse at the 2015 Warrnambool May Carnival who is carrying around 60kgs, has drawn inside gate 6, and is around $6.00, then you will get a good run for your money.

Add the likes of Darren Weir, Ciaron Maher, Peter Moody & Gai Waterhouse, combined with Dean Yendall, Brad Rawiller, Michelle Payne, Jamie Mott & Steven Pateman, and you are likely to be in the money more often than not, if recent history is any guide.

Local stables to watch include Matthew Williams, Jarrod McLean, Aaron Purcell and Bill & Symon Wilde, as they often bob up with good priced winners, while up and coming trainers like Daniel Bowman & Mitch Freedman are capable of producing a winner or two throughout the carnival.

Of course, the above information is only based on what happened last year.

Just for interest, these were the leading jockeys and trainers the previous year.

2013 Warrnambool May Carnival Stats

Brad Rawiller (4), Glen Boss (3), Brad McLean, Michelle Payne, Michael Walker (2).

Darren Weir (4), Ciaron Maher (3), Aaron Purcell, Bill Wilde, Jarrod McLean & Michael Moroney (2).

From an odds perspective, winners between $2.00 to $10.00 dominated once again, winning 20 of the 29 races, with only five horses winning at greater than $11.00.

A total of 45 of the past 58 winners at the Warrnambool May Carnival have been at odds of less than $10, at a strike rate of 78%, and there have only been 13 winners at double figure odds.

Figures from the past two years suggest you follow horses under double figure odds if you want to snare a consistent winner.

wiining-at-the-bool

Can’t beat that winning feeling at the Warrnambool May Carnival

Photos courtesy of Peter Morganti – Morgz Racing @morgzracing

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